Carter’s reflections, interviewed for Remembrance Day, the day of commemoration of the sacrifice of Commonwealth citizens during (but not limited to) the two world wars are part of the wider network of growing tensions in Eastern Europe. The migration crisis on the border between Belarus and Poland, where thousands of people are waiting in the cold, hoping to enter the European Union, is part of the wider confrontation between Moscow and Europe for regional domination.
The situation on the border between Belarus and Poland is complicated
London, in an intervention led by NATO, sent soldiers to help the Polish authorities strengthen the border walls. Lithuania, which shares an extensive border with Minsk, has sent troops to the border to manage a possible repositioning of the crisis. On the other side of the fence, Russian bombers have been monitoring Belarus’ airspace in recent days. An intensification of opposing activities and maneuvers that, according to Carter’s fears, could easily get out of hand: “Many of the traditional instruments and diplomatic mechanisms of the Cold War are gone. And without them the risk is higher “.
Carter’s goal is Russia, the biggest threat to London, as indicated in the recent revision of foreign policy guidelines. A hostile enemy, while Beijing was classified as an adversary. To see the Russian approval behind the Minsk maneuvers, you don’t need to equip yourself with particularly magical spheres. Belarus is a vassal state of Moscow, Lukashenko’s power depends entirely on Putin’s support, evidence and Russian intervention during the popular protests after the 2020 Belarusian elections. A few days ago, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki accused explicitly the Kremlin that it is the puppet that pulls the strings of the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
Repeated accusation by other European exponents, but rejected yesterday by Putin, who spoke about Polish behavior inconsistent with the humanitarian ideas that underlie the European Union. Words that sound sarcastic, but which also reveal the Russian efforts to highlight the hypocrisy of those who often draw Moscow’s attention to not giving a damn about people’s rights, writes Il Giornale.
Putin also described the activities of NATO and US forces in the Black Sea as “a serious defiance” for Russia. Precise warning for sailors.
To draw an even more complex picture, the Bloomberg revelation came that the US had warned the Brussels authorities that Russia would gather tens of thousands of soldiers on the border with Ukraine and prepare for the invasion. The news is followed by the publication, in early November, of satellite photos proving the amalgamation of Russian military vehicles and materials in localities near the border. Russia has always criticized military cooperation between NATO and Minsk and opposes Georgia and Ukraine’s entry into the Alliance: “It will never be possible,” Putin said in October.
It is not the first time that there has been an unusual intensification of the activity of Russian troops at the border, which also happened in March 2021, when the crisis returned, after the bilateral talks between Moscow and Washington. If Putin is now moving to Belarus to have a larger margin in Ukraine, the number of variables to be managed will increase dangerously. And not all of them are controllable, General Carter warns.